Retirement plan analysis
Run 1,000 paths through your numbers.
Monte Carlo simulation across the years between your current age and your planned-to age. Shows the range of outcomes a real plan has to defend against, not a single best-guess line. Five minutes, no account login. Results are hypothetical and travel with the SEC Marketing Rule 206(4)-1(d) disclosure required for projections like these.
Educational tool only
Camba Capital is not yet registered as an investment adviser and is not currently providing advisory services. This tool is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation. Hypothetical performance is not actual performance.
Walk it through with Dan Zimon
The tool runs the math. The thirty-year decisions it surfaces, pension timing, Roth conversion windows, IRMAA avoidance, SSA claim age. Benefit from a conversation, not a chart. First call is thirty minutes, no cost, no commitment.
Household figures
Tell the model who’s running this
Numbers stay in your browser unless you submit. The server runs the simulation, returns the confidence bands + plan-success rate, and does not store anything by default. If you decide to walk the results through with Dan Zimon, scheduling a call is a separate step. The tool runs without any contact information.
How to read the chart
What the bands mean
Light blue band, 10th to 90th percentile
The outer envelope. 80% of simulated paths fell inside this band at each age. The bottom edge is the “bad-sequence” tail — early retirement, big drawdown, withdrawals at depressed prices. The top edge is the favorable-sequence tail.
Darker blue band, 25th to 75th
The middle half of the distribution. A plan whose 25th percentile stays positive across the horizon has a meaningful margin of safety against ordinary market noise.
Solid blue line. Median
Half the trials ended above, half below. This is the middle-of-the-distribution path, not the expected path, important distinction with stochastic models.
Dashed black line. Average-return path
What the projection looks like if returns and inflation hit their assumed average every year. Useful sanity check but dangerous to plan around. Real markets do not hit the average every year.
What the model does and does not do
Honest about the limits
Modeled
- Federal income tax (2025 brackets, indexed for inflation annually)
- Required minimum distributions per SECURE 2.0 (age 73 today, age 75 from 2033)
- IRMAA tier tracking on Medicare Part B/D thresholds
- NY retiree state-tax add-on with pension exclusion
- Social Security claim-age curves per SSA-published formulas
- Pension COLA (NY public formula, fixed, or none)
- Withdrawal sequencing across taxable, tax-deferred, Roth, cash
Not modeled
- Net Investment Income Tax (3.8% NIIT)
- Alternative Minimum Tax (AMT)
- Capital-gains stacking on the ordinary brackets
- State other than NY
- Long-term-care expense shocks
- Individual security selection. Monte Carlo uses a single broad-market return distribution
- Tax-law changes beyond the 2026 TCJA sunset
- Social Security trust-fund insolvency scenarios
If the numbers raise questions
Numbers point at the conversation, not at the answer
A retirement plan is a sequence of decisions across decades, not a single number. The tool runs the math; the chess moves. Pension election timing, Roth conversion sequencing, IRMAA tier management, tax-aware withdrawal ordering. Are where Dan Zimon actually walks through the household’s situation. The first call is thirty minutes, free, no pitch.